У россиян мало денег на покупку нового жилья

У россиян мало денег на покупку нового жилья

И хочется, и колется

У россиян мало денег на покупку нового жилья
фото: Наталья Мущинкина

Неприятные симптомы

Даже склонный к приукрашиванию действительности Росстат признал, что общий объем ввода жилья в 2017 году сократился на 1,5%, у застройщиков падение оказалось еще больше — 5%. Количество новых разрешений на строительство в ушедшем году оказалось ниже, чем в 2016 году. Их было выдано только на 31,2 млн кв. м. Всего же объем незавершенного строительства составляет 140 млн кв. м — это 83% от всего рынка.

Сокращаются объемы текущего строительства. Если осенью 2017 года этот показатель равнялся 120 млн кв. м, то к февралю уменьшился до 110 млн кв. м. «Одновременно быстро растут объемы остановленного строительства. Это в свою очередь ведет к тому, что увеличиваются сроки переноса сдачи жилых домов, они возросли с 2 месяцев до 5 месяцев. В 2016 году своевременно сдавали 70% объектов, в 2017 году — уже только 54%. А досрочные сдачи сократились с 9% до 5%. В результате увеличилась средняя продолжительность сооружения дома в 2017 году до 33 месяцев. Годом ранее — 29 месяцев. Таким образом, срок строительства вырос сразу на 4 месяца, что весьма значительно», — отметил аналитик Национального объединения застройщиков жилья (НОЗА) Виталий Лапшин.

Квартиры все меньше…

Еще одна не самая радостная тенденция — снижение средней площади квартиры. Она прослеживается с 2005 года. И в 2017 году, по данным Росстата, ее размер составил 52 кв. м. А вот по независимым оценкам, в строящихся на основании ДДУ домах средний метраж не превышает 48–49 кв. м. Правда, квартиры, которые сооружаются с использованием других финансовых механизмов, больше по метражу.

Самые большие по площади квартиры были сданы в 2012–2013 годах. На текущий момент средняя их площадь в сооружаемых домах составляет 47–48 «квадратов».

С каждым годом малогабаритного жилья становится все больше. Это не может не настораживать. Власти толком не знают, что делать с огромным массивом «хрущевок», но пройдет не так много времени, и схожий вопрос возникнет с нынешним поколением таких же малогабаритных «клетушек». Причем вряд ли пройдет столько же времени, сколько прошло после эпохи первой волны массового панельного строительства. Проблема станет актуальной сразу после того, как стройрынок оправится от кризиса.

…а дома — все выше

Сегодня все отчетливей просматривается тренд на удовлетворение потребностей одиноких людей: «однушки» — самый популярный сегмент у застройщиков. К сожалению, очень мало внимания уделяется нуждам многодетных семей.

Зато растет этажность возводимых домов: в среднем МКД уже «поднялись» до 16 этажей. То есть наши города становятся все выше и выше. Вот только стоит ли этому радоваться?

Все хотят в Москву

До конца 2017 года цены на квартиры постоянно снижались, затем они начали медленно расти. Средняя стоимость одного квадратного метра по стране сегодня находится на уровне 60 тыс. руб. При этом чем меньше квартира, тем дороже обходится покупателям в ней каждый метр. Де-факто получается, что сокращение метража жилья не всегда выгодно будущему жильцу, только он редко проводит подобные расчеты и сопоставления, а потому чаще всего не догадывается об этом.

Особенность жилищной политики России — бурное строительство в европейской части. И сверхконцентрация предложения жилья всего в трех регионах: Москве, Московской области и Санкт-Петербурге. Все остальные регионы сильно отстают. Особенно Дальний Восток и Сибирь.

При этом в столице и Подмосковье зафиксированы кричащие перекосы: 55% всего спроса в области ограничено узкой зоной в 10 км от границ Белокаменной. И постепенно он перемещается уже внутрь Москвы.

38 месяцев падения

Строительный рынок в целом остается плохо сбалансированным. Основной механизм финансирования строек — по-прежнему долевое строительство. Объем других способов строительства в жилищном секторе не превышает 3%. При этом количество выданных разрешений на новое строительство с учетом ситуации на рынке очень велико. В отличие от продаж готовой продукции. Это провоцирует волну банкротств среди строительных компаний, а также ведет к укрупнению сектора. Доля крупнейших застройщиков уже к концу 2015 года возросла с 18 до 24%. И с того времени этот процесс только нарастал.

Главная причина «болезней» строительной отрасли связана с падением платежеспособного спроса граждан. Доходы населения сокращаются 38 месяцев подряд. Правда, с 2016 года эта скорость стала снижаться, что стало одной из причин существенного роста ипотечного рынка. В 2017 году его рублевый объем вырос на 16%. Однако по числу выданных кредитов рост намного скромней — всего 2%. Отрадные результаты достигнуты преимущественно за счет четырех регионов, которые не трудно угадать: Москвы, Подмосковья, Санкт-Петербурга и Ленинградской области. На всю остальную огромную страну пришлось всего полпроцента прироста. И это при снижении процентной ставки по займам.

Росреестр зарегистрировал снижение количества договоров по ДДУ в 2017 году на 0,3%. Вроде бы совсем мало, но если исключить все те же четыре региона-лидера, то сокращение будет куда больше — на 6,5%.

По оценке профильных экспертов, стоимость жилья в России по-прежнему сильно зависит от колебаний цен на нефть. Сегодня средняя цена квартиры приблизительно равна 15–16 баррелям «черного золота». Нефть дорожает, вслед за ней растет стоимость квадратного метра. Если «черное золото» дешевеет, квадратный метр тоже катится вниз. В последние 3–4 года коэффициент корреляции достигает 95%.

Получайте короткую вечернюю рассылку лучшего в «МК» — подпишитесь на наш Telegram.

Источник: mk.ru

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