Российские суверенные еврооблигации снова немного подешевели

Российские суверенные еврооблигации вновь показали незначительное снижение котировок, оставляя без внимания внешний фон. Цены на нефть вчера продолжали расти практически весь день, а доходность UST10 двигалась вверх, впрочем, ее снижение накануне не было отражено в котировках российских бумаг. Суверенные евробонды большинства развивающихся стран во вторник смогли умеренно подорожать, но российские бумаги стали исключением, что по-прежнему обусловлено опасениями ужесточения санкций. Как и днем ранее, суверенные еврооблигации подешевели на 0,1–0,2 п.п., доходность RUSSIA’47 вернулась на уровень 5,65%. Пятилетний CDS-спред России остался без изменений. Прошедшие вчера в Сенате США обсуждения отношений с Россией, а также ограничительных мер и их эффективности не пролили свет на то, каким образом могут быть изменены находящиеся сейчас на рассмотрении Сената законопроекты по санкциям, однако участники обсуждений выразили мнение, что дополнительные санкции против РФ, несомненно, должны быть введены. Позже сенатор Митч Макконнел, лидер сенаторского большинства, заявил, что вероятность провести эти законопроекты до промежуточных выборов в Сенат в начале ноября небольшая. Таким образом, обсуждение законопроектов, возможно, затянется, что в краткосрочной перспективе может быть позитивно для российских бумаг. Однако уже сегодня может вступить в действие первая часть санкций Госдепа США в связи с инцидентом в Солсбери. Под вопросом остается вторая (наиболее жесткая) часть, которая может быть введена через три месяца, впрочем, этого, вероятно, можно избежать в случае успешных переговоров РФ и США.

В корпоративном сегменте динамика преимущественно также была негативной. Внимание рынка по-прежнему было приковано к бумагам госбанков. Так, вчера еврооблигации ВЭБа начали быстро восстанавливаться после рекордных потерь в предыдущие дни и практически отыграли падение понедельника, прибавив 1,8–3,4 п.п. от номинала, однако с момента публикации законопроекта санкций они все еще выглядят хуже рынка. В то же время евробонды Сбербанка продолжали терять в цене – минус 0,1–0,4 п.п., на 0,4 п.п. подешевел и суборд VTB’22 (YTM 7,8%). Суборды частных банков торговались разнонаправленно. В нефтегазовом секторе большинство бумаг снизилось на 0,1–0,2 п.п. от номинала, а длинные евробонды Газпрома – на 0,2–0,4 п.п. Среди металлургов тоже наблюдалось падение котировок (на 0,1–0,2 п.п.). Аналогичные результаты показали и бонды телекоммуникационного сектора. Также выделим SIBUR’23 (YTM 5,5%) и SCFRU’23 (YTM 5,7%) – минус 0,3 п.п. Евробонд GTLKOA’21 (YTM 6,5%) вчера тоже потерял 0,3 п.п., и сейчас его доходность является одной из самых высоких среди российских бумаг на данном отрезке дюрации. На наш взгляд, выпуск смотрится привлекательно. Сегодня внешний фон скорее нейтральный: доходность UST10 утром упала, но уже начала расти, цены на нефть продолжают двигаться вверх, азиатские рынки сегодня торгуются разнонаправленно, фьючерсы на американские индексы в минусе.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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