Наиболее активные банки на рынке ипотеки в 2018 году

Наиболее активные банки на рынке ипотеки в 2018 году
© РИА Новости Нина Зотина

РИА Рейтинг – 7 мар. Завершившийся 2018 год для ипотечного кредитования в России выдался крайне удачным. Так, было заключено рекордное количество ипотечных договоров, и был обновлен исторический максимум по суммарному объему ипотеки. Значительный рост жилищного кредитования обусловлен масштабным снижением процентных ставок и относительно стабильной ситуацией с ценами на жилье, что заметно увеличило его доступность. За прошедший 2018 год в России было выдано порядка 1,5 миллиона новых ипотечных кредитов против 1,1 миллиона в 2017 году. Стоит отметить, что уровень в 1 миллион новых ипотечных договоров, помимо 2018 и 2017 годов, наблюдался лишь однажды до этого – в 2014 году. При этом в денежном выражении объем выданной за год ипотеки по итогам 2018 года составил 3,02 триллиона рублей. Таким образом, даже относительно рекордного 2017 года количество ипотечных сделок выросло на 35%, а в деньгах наблюдался рост на 49%. При этом в 2016 году, когда действовала программа господдержки ипотеки, за год было выдано почти в 2 раза меньше кредитов (864 тысячи), чем сейчас. В целом на 1 января 2019 года объем задолженности по ипотечным кредитам на балансах банков превысил 6,6 триллионов рублей, что на 23% больше, чем на начало 2018 года.

Второе полугодие 2018 года для ипотечного кредитования выдалось более удачным, чем первое. В частности в июле-декабре было выдано 811 тысяч новых ипотечных кредитов на сумму 1,71 триллиона рублей, тогда как в первом полугодии количество заключенных договоров составило 666 тысяч единиц на сумму 1,31 триллиона рублей. Такая разница между полугодиями в основном объясняется сезонным фактором, а также динамикой процентных ставок. 

Обращает на себя внимание, что растут не только денежные показатели рынка ипотеки, но и «качественные» индикаторы. В частности, средняя процентная ставка в 2018 году по ипотечному кредиту составила 9,56%, что является историческим минимумом. Для сравнения, в 2017 году ипотеку выдавали под 10,64%, а в достаточно удачном 2014 году –  под 12,51%. Еще одним индикатором выступает средний размер кредита, который в конце 2018 года был на уровне 2,17 миллиона рублей, против 1,86 и 1,72 миллиона рублей в среднем в 2017 и 2016 годах соответственно. Также наблюдался рост среднего срока кредита, который по итогам 2018 года превысил 195 месяцев (16 лет и 3 месяца). Для сравнения, в четвертом квартале 2017 года он составлял 187 месяцев (15 лет и 7 месяцев), а во втором квартале 2015 года был лишь на уровне 171 месяц (14 лет и 3 месяца). Таким образом, снижение ставок, рост среднего кредита и увеличение сроков кредитования в конечном итоге увеличивают доступность приобретения собственного жилья для граждан России.

Стоит отметить, что в конце прошедшего года тенденция снижения ставок прервалась. В сентябре был установлен исторический минимум по средней процентной ставке, которая в этом месяце составила 9,41%. Однако в декабре средняя процентная ставка выросла до 9,66%, что стало следствием двух повышений Центробанком ключевой ставки в сентябре и декабре. При этом у большинства банков ставки после волны повышений стали выше 10%, поэтому, по мнению экспертов РИА Рейтинг, в ближайшие месяцы фактические процентные ставки по ипотеке продолжат расти, и они смогут стабилизироваться, скорее всего, к средине текущего года. Ожидается, что возврат к снижению ставок возможен во второй половине 2019 года.

В 2018 году из-за рекордной динамики выдачи ипотеки просрочка по рублевой ипотеке продолжила снижаться. Если на 1 января 2018 года доля просроченной задолженности по рублевым жилищным кредитам была равна 1,15%, то на 1 января 2019 года она опустилось до 1,01%. В целом можно констатировать, что уровень просрочки по ипотечному кредитования находится на очень низком уровне, и заемщики в большинстве своем исправно платят банкам.

Рынок стремится к олигополии?

Для исследования ситуации в разрезе отдельных кредитных организаций аналитики РИА Рейтинг подготовили рейтинг крупнейших банков по выдаче ипотечных кредитов на 1 января 2019 года. В рейтинге представлены данные по 100 наиболее активным в плане ипотеки российским банкам, по которым опубликована отчетность согласно форме №316 на сайте Центробанка РФ, и которые имели лицензии на 6 марта 2019 года.

Согласно статистике Банка России, по итогам 2018 года в России 256 банков имели на балансе ипотечные кредиты, а выдачу ипотеки осуществляли 209 банков. При этом большинство выдающих ипотеку банков имеют незначительный объем выдачи таких кредитов. В частности в 2018 году лишь 49 банков выдали ипотеки на 500 миллионов рублей и более, а уровень в 1 миллиард рублей смогли покорить 39 банков. Таким образом, ощутимое влияние на ипотеку в целом оказывают порядка 30 банков, а имеют заметную долю рынка лишь 15 банков. При этом чтобы попасть в число ТОП-100 крупнейших банков по текущей выдаче ипотечных кредитов в 2018 году объем текущей выдачи должен был быть на уровне 5,8 миллиона рублей в месяц (69 миллионов рублей за год), то есть около трех средних кредитов за месяц. В свою очередь, что бы попасть в ТОП-10 банков объем среднемесячной выдачи ипотечных кредитов должен быть на уровне 2,4 миллиарда рублей, то есть в 400 раз больше, чем у банка на 100-м месте. Стоит отметить, что число активных участников данного рынка ощутимо сокращается в последние годы. В 2017 году порядка 50 банков ощутимо влияли на рынок ипотеки, а заметная доля рынка была у 30 банков, кроме того разница между 10-м и 100-м в 2017 году была 180 раз против 400 в прошедшем году.

Согласно результатам исследования, в 2018 году в ТОП-100 наиболее активных ипотечных банков положительной прирост выдачи новой ипотеки наблюдался у 79 банков. При этом среди разных размерных групп из ТОП-100, разделенных по 25 банков, доля банков с приростом ипотечного портфеля была примерно одинаковой за исключением группы небольших кредитных организаций. Так, у банков из трех первых групп доля варьировалась от 80% до 84%, тогда как у банков с 76 по 100 место только 68% банков характеризовались приростом ипотечного портфеля.

Крупные банки не только чаще показывали положительную динамику, но и в целом выдача ипотеки у них росла быстрее. ТОП-25 банков в 2018 году выдал ипотечных кредитов на 2,9 триллиона рублей, что на 48% больше, чем у ТОП-25 на 1 января 2018 года. Выдача ипотеки у банков с 26 по 50 места на конец 2018 года была больше на 17,1%, чем результат этой размерной группы банков в 2017 году. У других размерных групп динамика оказалась отрицательной, в частности, с 51 по 75 места за год суммарный объем выданной ипотеки сократился на 14,3%. В свою очередь у банков 25 банков замыкающих сотню сокращение выдачи кредитов на жилье составило 14,5%. Из-за более быстрого роста крупных банков концентрация на рынке ипотечного кредитования заметно растет, и уже достигла очень высокого уровня. ТОП-5 крупнейших банков на этом рынке обеспечивает порядка 85% всей выдачи ипотеки, а первая десятка обеспечила 90% всей выдачи ипотеки.

Сбербанк продолжает контролировать значительную часть ипотеки

Согласно результатам исследования, проведенного экспертами РИА Рейтинг, как и в большинстве сегментов рынка банковских услуг лидером на рынке ипотеки является Сбербанк. На него приходится более 54% всех выданных в 2018 году ипотечных кредитов, а портфель ипотечных кредитов на балансе Сбербанка по итогам года составил 3,8 триллиона рублей. В 2018 году крупнейший банк Центральной и Восточной Европы выдал 851 тысячу ипотечных кредитов на сумму 1,6 триллиона рублей. В целом Сбербанк уверенно контролирует более половины рынка ипотеки в стране, и, по всей видимости, его позициям мало что угрожает в среднесрочной перспективе.

Вторым по выдаче новых кредитов на покупку жилья является Банк ВТБ. В 2018 году данный банк выдал 248 тысяч кредитов на сумму 590 миллиардов рублей. На третьем и четвертом местах по объему выдачи кредитов по итогам 2018 года расположились также государственные банки: Банк ГПБ (Газпромбанк) и Россельхозбанк соответственно. На них суммарно приходится новых ипотечных кредитов на сумму 281 миллиардов рублей (131 тысяча договоров). Таким образом, доля рынка в 2018 года у четырех государственных банков, лидеров ипотечного рынка, составила 82% в денежном выражении, а в количестве ипотечных договоров – порядка 85%. В целом можно сказать, что рынок ипотеки в России является почти полностью государственным.

Скорее всего, на фоне роста ставок вслед за ставкой рефинансирования и регулятивных ограничений в 2019 году можно ожидать замедления ранка ипотечного кредитования, но темпы прироста задолженности все равно останутся двузначными. По оценкам аналитиков РИА Рейтинг, в следующем году ипотечный рынок как минимум повторит результат 2018 года, и жилищных кредитов будет выдано примерно на 3,0-3,2 триллиона рублей, а суммарный портфель ипотечных кредитов, вероятно, вырастает на 14-19% до 7,7 триллионов рублей.

Рейтинг банков по объему выдачи ипотечных кредитов в 2018 году в PDF-формате >>

РИА Рейтинг – это универсальное рейтинговое агентство медиагруппы МИА «Россия сегодня», специализирующееся на оценке социально-экономического положения регионов РФ, экономического состояния компаний, банков, отраслей экономики, стран. Основными направлениями деятельности агентства являются: создание рейтингов регионов РФ, банков, предприятий, муниципальных образований, страховых компаний, ценных бумаг, другим экономических объектов; комплексные экономические исследования в финансовом, корпоративном и государственном секторах.

МИА «Россия сегодня» – международная медиагруппа, миссией которой является оперативное, взвешенное и объективное освещение событий в мире, информирование аудитории о различных взглядах на ключевые события. РИА Рейтинг в составе МИА «Россия сегодня» входит в линейку информационных ресурсов агентства, включающих также: РИА Новости, Р-Спорт, РИА Недвижимость, Прайм, ИноСМИ. МИА «Россия сегодня» лидирует по цитируемости среди российских СМИ и наращивает цитируемость своих брендов за рубежом. Агентство также занимает лидирующее положение по цитируемости в российских социальных сетях и блогосфере.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had
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