S&P вынесло приговор российской экономике: инвесторы убегут, рубль ослабеет

Экономисты: в России все будет стабильно плохо

S&P вынесло приговор российской экономике: инвесторы убегут, рубль ослабеет
фото: Геннадий Черкасов

Несмотря на небольшой государственный долг и наличие резервов, а также повышение цен на нефть, российскую экономику назвали «структурно слабой».

45% валютной выручки страны приходятся на экспорт нефти и газа, а сама экономическая система существенно ограничена в своем развитии из-за тотального контроля государства, неблагоприятного инвестиционного климата и неблагоприятной регуляторной среды, пишет finanz.ru

По оценке S&P, в ближайшее четыре года иностранные инвесторы продолжат снижать вложения в реальный сектор российской экономики. Ежегодно Россия будет терять прямые зарубежные инвестиции в размере от 1 до 1,1% ВВВ (15 млрд долларов).

Отмечается, что ВВП России на душу населения в два раза ниже, чем у стран с аналогичным рейтингом. Несмотря на анонсированные планы по «ускорению» экономического роста, его темпы будут отставать от общемировых в два раза: в 2018 году ожидается рост на уровне 1,6%, в 2019 — 1,7%, 2020 и 2021 годах — 1,8%.

Одновременно продолжить слабеть и рубль. В концу года доллар поднимется до 64 рублей, в 2019 — до 66,8 рубля, к 2020 году — до 69 рублей.

Режим санкций также будет действовать как минимум еще четыре года, лишив Россию возможности привлечения современных технологий и создавая неопределенность для потенциальных инвесторов.

Также читайте материал: Беларусь обогнала Россию по покупательной способности населения

Санкции . Хроника событий

Источник: ria-news.ru

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«The one variable that cannot be accounted for is President Trump becoming even more erratic and destabilizing over the next ten weeks,» said Brad Karp, chairman of Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP. «There is no telling what he might try to do and no ability to predict how the markets might react in response.»
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