Следующая неделя несет больше негатива, чем позитива для российских рынков

Обмен торговыми пошлинами между США и Турцией спровоцировал отток «горячих денег» из развивающихся стран, в результате чего подскочила доходность суверенных еврооблигаций этих стран, в том числе и российских, которые имеют кредитный рейтинг последней инвестиционной категории «BBB-» от двух из трех мировых рейтинговых агентств. И сегодня Fitch подтвердит его. В свою очередь, индекс доллара укреплялся с 95,6 до 97 пунктов на неделе, а доходность американских гособлигаций снижалась, например, по 10-летним бондам с 2,9% до 2,84%.

Теперь мировые инвесторы ждут позитивных сообщений о будущих переговорах США и Китая по торговым пошлинам. Из существенных событий на следующей неделе мы отметим публикацию протокола заседания FOMC ФРС США в начале августа, который может сделать яснее ситуацию с повышением ставки в сентябре-декабре 2018 года. Исходя из расчетов фьючерсов на ставку, на данный момент вероятность увеличения ставки до 2,25% в сентябре составляет 90%, в ноябре 88%, в декабре 38%. На этом фоне мы ожидаем ослабления рубля на следующей неделе. Плюс 22 августа будут введены очередные санкции США против РФ.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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